NYC’s Finance Jobs Won’t Recover for Six Years, Analysis Shows

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New York City’s finance industry won’t recover from the devastation wrought by Covid-19 until 2026, according to an analysis by software firm ThinkIQ that ranks U.S. employment markets.

The NYC region lost about 8% of its finance jobs this year, down from its peak of more than 800,000 last August. Coronavirus, which has killed at least 21,000 New Yorkers so far, isn’t the culprit in all of those cuts. But the lockdown stemming from the illness caused a domino effect on everything from rents to mortgage payments.

The finance sector spans industries ranging from banking and securities to real estate and insurance. Most Wall Street firms pledged not to cut staff during the pandemic, but Bloomberg reported last month that Cantor Fitzgerald was planning to lay off hundreds of workers due to the virus.

ThinkIQ, based in Aliso Viejo, California, uses 10 key economic indicators to rank U.S. employment markets — including job and wage growth, demographics and educational attainment. New York ranks No. 1 in population but doesn’t fare as well in other metrics such as wage increases (No. 47) and job growth (No. 143).

New York was rated the world’s leading financial market by the Global Financial Centres Index by Z/Yen Partners in collaboration with the China Development Institute and according to a survey from Duff & Phelps.

The city that never sleeps has shown its resiliency multiple times in the last 20 years, including from the Great Recession. ThinkIQ predicts that the employment level will be almost back to 2019 levels in six years.

Most industries will take years to recoup. Employment in the leisure and hospitality arena, for instance, is expected to reach only about 90% of its 2019 level by 2026, the latest year in the forecast.

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Kennedy Family Will Dedicate 2020 Profile in Courage Award to Coronavirus Frontline Workers

The Kennedy family is looking for heroes on the frontlines of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to honor with their annual award.

On Thursday, the JFK Library released a new video message from Caroline Kennedy — daughter of former President John F. Kennedy — and her son, Jack Schlossberg, about the 2020 Profile in Courage Award. Since the annual ceremony, which began in 1989, couldn't be held as planned, the family decided to introduce a "special" twist this year.

"This past week we celebrated Memorial Day, when we honored all those who have given their lives for our country," says Caroline, 62, in the clip.

"It's also when we usually have the Profile in Courage Award, where we celebrate political heroes who put country first," adds Schlossberg, 27. "We can't get together this year, but we're still seeing courage all around us."

The mother-son duo then explain that they are calling for nominations, asking that followers submit local frontline workers in their own communities for consideration to be honored. Nominations can be made through the JFK Library website or on social media using the hashtag #COVIDCourage.

Past winners of the award include House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Presidents Barack Obama and George H. W. Bush.

"We look forward to celebrating these heroes at the JFK Library's Profile in Courage Award ceremony when we can all get together in person," Caroline says. "Thank you, and we wish you and your families health and safety during these uncertain times."

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Sharing the news on the Today show on Thursday, Caroline and her son clarified that the frontline hero designation isn't limited to health care workers — but anyone making a difference during the pandemic and "putting their own lives at risk to help."

"What happened this year is we realized that we are seeing courage all around us in the extraordinary demonstration of people putting their own lives at risk to help the rest of us stay safe and healthy," Caroline told host Savannah Guthrie.

Caroline, a former U.S. ambassador, said the Profile in Courage Award has come to "symbolize people who put others ahead of themselves, whether it's in politics, and now we're seeing that just throughout our society."

"Whether it's health care workers, grocery story workers, first responders and transit workers who are just risking their own lives for the rest of us," she said. "I think that's something that everybody's moved by, appreciates, and I think their example will really help the rest of us act with courage and clarity in our own lives."

She added: "Everybody's been affected by this. … I think everybody knows somebody who's either stepping forward to help others, or who has lost a loved one during this time."

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Coronavirus puts full Social Security benefits at risk years earlier than expected, researchers say

Coronavirus is opportunity to look into finances, retirement savings: Financial expert

Financial expert Chris Hogan discusses how to manage finances and retirement savings amid the coronavirus pandemic.

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Economists are warning that the government needs to begin thinking seriously about the longer-term impacts of the coronavirus pandemic  – including how it will negatively affect Social Security in a "significant" way.

A new analysis conducted by researchers at the Penn Wharton Budget Model showed that Social Security is at risk of running out of funds as many as four years earlier than anticipated – in 2032 – depending on the shape of the U.S. economic recovery. Prior to the pandemic, the group had a 2036 estimate for the OASDI trust fund.

“In the Social Security world, this really isn’t very long [off],” Penn Wharton Budget Model Faculty Director Kent Smetters told FOX Business. “Clearly people are focused on the here and now, but it’s time to start focusing on the longer-run trade-offs … we just lost four years [from Social Security].”

CORONAVIRUS AND SOCIAL SECURITY: SHOULD YOU CONSIDER COLLECTING BENEFITS EARLY?

If the U.S. economy were to bounce back sharply – and the recovery resembled more of a “V” shape – then reserves would be depleted in 2034. Unfortunately, Smetters said this scenario is less likely than a more gradual “U-shaped” recovery, under which the PWBM forecasts the 2032 timeframe.

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A good way for retirees to think about the problem is to consider their 401(k) savings – it is similar to being told account balances will lose 25 percent of their value in the near future, Smetters said.

A benefit reduction wouldn’t just affect future retirees, across-the-board cuts would apply to people currently collecting benefits, too.

SOCIAL SECURITY SHORTFALL: EVEN BEFORE CORONAVIRUS, FUNDING OUTLOOK PROBLEMATIC

A decline in payroll taxes is expected to be primarily responsible for draining Social Security’s coffers more quickly, given the dramatic rise in unemployment numbers.

As of last week, more than 38 million Americans had filed jobless claims.

Unemployment benefits are not subject to payroll taxes, which fund Social Security and Medicare. Employers and employees each pay 6.2 percent for Social Security and 1.45 percent for Medicare, and an additional 0.9 percent is levied on the highest earners.

Low interest rates also affect reserves, as they reduce income on bonds held by the fund.

3 STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TODAY TOWARD BUILDING WEALTH DURING A CRISIS

Smetters noted the timeline could even be more accelerated than either PWBM forecast suggests – if the recovery takes an “L-shape,” as it did in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

The annual trustees’ report, which was released last month, did not take the effects of coronavirus into account when it estimated that the program’s reserves would be depleted by 2035. At that time, continuing tax income was expected to be sufficient to cover 79 percent of scheduled benefits.

A separate analysis, which did take into account the effect of the pandemic, estimated that Social Security’s funding may run dry as soon as 2029.

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As of March, more than 69.4 million people were receiving Social Security, Supplemental Security Income or both. The average benefit was $1,387.26.

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Varney: Coronavirus will forever change New York City

Varney: NYC will recover from coronavirus, but it won’t be the same

FOX Business’ Stuart Varney discusses how the coronavirus will impact New York City.

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FOX Business’ Stuart Varney, in his latest “My Take,” argues New York City will be forever changed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“New York is America’s biggest city. It’s been shut down for over two months,” Varney said. “It will come back, but it will not be the same.”

Varney noted that 6th Avenue in Midtown was “almost deserted” Wednesday morning.

“To bring this back to life, the giant office buildings which line the street have to staff back up again,” he said. “In the age of social distancing and liability lawsuits, that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. That means fewer jobs, less tax revenue and sharp downward pressure on apartment and office rents.”

VARNEY: SOCIAL COSTS OF CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN ARE HIGH

People talk through their masks as they stand next to the Hudson River as the sun sets on lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center in New York City on May 4, 2020 in Jersey City, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/FOX News)

Varney also noted that theaters and entertainment venues, like Radio City Music Hall, won’t be filled for a long time.

“That means a serious downturn in the city's entertainment industry, which is a backbone of the city and a huge money earner,” he said. “How many aspiring actors, stagehands, musicians, ushers, makeup artists, cleaners and security people will not be coming back to work? And how many tourists will not turn up, and will not occupy a hotel room?”

VARNEY: AMERICA'S 'MOOD' CHANGING FROM CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN TO BREAK OUT

Varney added that the city's social scene will suffer as well.

“Many [resturaunts and bars] will not reopen. Bartenders, waiters and cooks out of work and probably going out of town,” he said. “I know a lot of young up-and-comers who ask: What's the point of living in a city, in an expensive apartment box, when meeting other young people is more difficult and there are fewer young people anyway?”

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People walk past the Shubert Theatre after it was announced Broadway theatres will close for a month on March 12, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

Varney said he’s not blaming anyone but simply pointing out the largest city in the U.S. is “undergoing radical change.”

“It will not look and feel like the New York City we've known,” Varney said. “Even if it was opened up 100 percent tomorrow with no restrictions, it would still not be the same. That's the new reality.”

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Salaries Get Chopped for Many Americans Who Manage to Keep Jobs

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Companies across the U.S. are cutting salaries as they fight to survive the coronavirus, upending a key assumption in modern economics and raising another hurdle to rapid recovery.

The hard numbers won’t be in for months, but anecdotal evidence is piling up. On earnings calls, big businesses including The Container Store Group and Lyft have cited what they say are temporary salary reductions. Federal Reserve officials also have found plenty of supporting evidence.

The pandemic has triggered unemployment on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. Pay cuts for Americans who’ve managed to hold onto their jobs may hobble the return to normal. People will have to use a bigger chunk of their income for fixed obligations such as housing and other debts — leaving less for the kind of spending that can help spark the economy back into life.

“It’s one of the reasons why we don’t expect a so-called V-shaped recovery,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York. Americans taking pay cuts “might have little, and in some cases maybe nothing, left over after that for discretionary purchases.”

Outside of “high-demand sectors such as grocery stores,” there are signs of “general wage softening and salary cuts” all over the economy, according to a Fed business survey in April. A study by Thomvest Ventures, which looked at 22 public and private technology companies, found that non-executive employees had seen pay reduced by an average of 10% to 15%.

Not So Sticky?

That’s not supposed to happen, according to ideas that have dominated economics for the better part of a century, since John Maynard Keynes unveiled his famous “General Theory” during the Great Depression.

The phenomenon is known as “sticky wages.” Employers may be able to cut inflation-adjusted pay by raising wages less than prices, the argument goes. But it’s harder to cut pay in nominal terms — in other words, by putting a smaller number on people’s paychecks.

That’s why supply and demand get out of balance in a slump, according to the so-called New Keynesian model that Fed officials and other policy makers lean on. It’s a justification for governments to intervene with stimulus, rather than just allowing market forces to play out until the economy finds a new equilibrium.

18,611 in U.S.Most new cases today

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-1.​039 Change in U.S. treasury bond yield since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23

-4.​8% Global GDP Tracker (annualized), April


The theory has largely held up in practice as well as on paper.

Truman Bewley, an economics professor at Yale University, wrote a whole book on the phenomenon: “Why Wages Don’t Fall During a Recession,” published in 1999. He conducted hundreds of interviews but said he essentially got the answer from the first person he talked to, a manufacturing executive.

‘Misery Out’

“I asked: Why do you lay so many people off rather than reducing pay? And his answer was -- I should’ve made it the title of my book -- ‘to get the misery out the door’,” Bewley said.

“It’s sort of obvious, and I kept hearing that same thing all over the place,” he said. “Your core -- which you want to hang onto and cultivate -- have them work full-time and keep their pay and be loyal to the company. And everybody else, you sacrifice.”

The logic held up even through the unusually deep downturn of 2007-09 -- spawning a new wave of research on the topic. “Sticky wages” were invoked to explain why pay was slow to increase after the crisis, too.

The virus slump looks as if it may be different.

Many businesses -- such as Helen of Troy, which sells household and beauty products and is based in El Paso, Texas -- are adopting the language of shared sacrifice.

“Our people supported this approach and continue to do exemplary work, driving the business and keeping the company fully operational,” Chief Executive Officer Julien Mininberg said on an April 28 earnings call.

The circumstances of a public-health crisis probably make pay cuts more palatable to workers than they’d normally be, according to Bruce Fallick, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland -– at least initially.

‘It’s Pretty Obvious’

“If the state of Ohio tells you you have to shut down, or you can only have customers if they’re spaced by this amount, and they can only come in at this rate, and all that sort of thing, it’s pretty obvious to everybody what’s going on,” he said.

But the share of national income that goes to U.S. workers in the form of compensation already is near the lowest level in more than half a century. And there’s no guarantee salaries will return quickly to pre-crisis levels. The pace may depend on government support for the economy, to ensure people have money to spend on goods and services once the pandemic is over.

While Congress has authorized some $3 trillion of fiscal spending, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that measures taken to date may not be enough to prevent widespread bankruptcies and prolonged joblessness.

The pandemic exposes the shortcomings in the New Keynesian model, according to J.W. Mason, an assistant professor of economics at City University of New York. The real takeaway from Keynes is that pay cuts only drive the economy further from, not closer to, full employment.

“The source of unemployment in a crisis like this is a lack of aggregate demand,” he said. “Pay cuts are only going to make that worse.”

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Detroit to Get Mask Factory With Investment From Bangladesh

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Bangladesh’s Beximco Group will set up a plant in Detroit to make masks as demand for protective gear in the U.S., the nation with the most coronavirus cases, surges.

The Dhaka-based conglomerate, which started selling the generic version of Gilead Sciences Inc.’s antiviral drug this month in the South Asian nation, will invest $20 million in the Detroit plant, said Syed Naved Husain, chief executive officer of the group’s textile business. The company will also invest $30 million on a plant at home, he said.

Beximco’s textile unit is tapping new opportunities as luxury brands from New York to Paris scrap garment orders amid the pandemic. The company expects the Detroit plant to be ready in nine months, while the one in Bangladesh will start production in four months, Husain said.

The company will initially supply N95 masks in Detroit before expanding to other parts of the U.S., Husain said.

Beximco said Hanesbrands Inc. bought 6.5 million personal protective equipment from the company to supply to the Federal Emergency Management Agency on May 25.

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U.S. Virus Plan Aims for More Tests in May Than All Done To Date

The Trump administration has released coronavirus testing targets for May, an aggressive expansion that would have some states doubling, quadrupling and even, in the case of Puerto Rico, completing 5.6 times the number they had done through late April.

The White House announced on May 11 that states had set the goals in partnership with the Trump administration, but didn’t release specifics. The breakdown of targets by state was released Sunday as part of a testing plan outlined by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in a report to Congress.

The HHS plan calls for about 12.9 million tests this month. States are nearly two-thirds of the way to meeting that goal, with roughly 8.3 million administered as of Monday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, a volunteer initiative to track virus data. HHS spokespeople didn’t respond to requests for comment on the delay in releasing the targets the states had set.

Mass testing is essential to understanding the virus’s spread and quelling outbreaks. The HHS goals highlight the administration’s approach, which has largely placed the responsibility on the states. However experts say that a stronger federal role is required to solve issues like shortages of key materials that are bogging down testing.

19,056 in U.S.Most new cases today

-12% Change in MSCI World Index of global stocks since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23

-1.​041 Change in U.S. treasury bond yield since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23

-4.​8% Global GDP Tracker (annualized), April


Read the report here

The goals aim for states to test between 2% and 15% of their populations this month, according to the HHS report. Some of the hardest-hit states have the largest targets. New York state’s goal is 1.5 million tests and California’s 1.2 million. Massachusetts, New Jersey and Texas have targets of 700,000 or more.

President Donald Trump committed his administration this month to providing certain testing materials to help states meet near-term goals, as well as announcing the distribution of about $11 billion for expanding state-level testing infrastructure.

The Trump administration is distributing 12.9 million swabs and 9.8 million transport media tubes to help meet the goals. It plans to acquire 100 million swabs and 100 million viral transport media vials to further augment supplies this year, according to the report.

It’s part of a $75.5 million Defense Production Act investment in U.S. swab-maker Puritan Medical Products aimed at doubling its monthly capacity, according to the HHS document.

As part of the federal funding, the states are required to supply a testing plan to HHS for May and June as well as the rest of the year. The deadline for May and June testing plans is the end of the month.

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Mike Pence's Press Secretary Announces She's Recovered from COVID-19 — and She's Pregnant



McEnany, 32, told reporters at a press briefing on Tuesday that she wasn't sure if Trump's valet had returned to work and didn't know if anyone else in the White House has tested positive for COVID-19 in the weeks since Miller and the valet's diagnosis.

"It's not something that I regularly keep tabs on," she said.

A senior Trump administration official told PEOPLE earlier this month that the president's physician and White House operations staff were making sure "every precaution is taken to keep the president, first family and the entire White House complex safe and healthy at all times."

The U.S. was closing in on 100,000 deaths from the virus as of Tuesday — a grave landmark in the pandemic — while globally the New York Times reports at least 346,283 people have died from the virus out of 5.4 million confirmed cases.

The contagious virus has shown it knows no political bounds, infecting officials from governments across the globe in recent months — including in the U.S.

McEnany said Tuesday that the Trump administration was still planning to host the annual G7 summit with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.K.

"We will protect world leaders who come here just like we protect people in the White House," she said.

She said the U.S. was looking to host the summit in late June and the administration planned to host it at the White House.

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J.K. Rowling Says Serialized New Book ‘The Ickabog’ Unrelated To ‘Harry Potter’

J.K. Rowling has announced plans to publish her new book, The Ickabog, chapter by chapter on the internet through July.

In a blog post and corresponding Twitter thread on Tuesday, she emphasized is unrelated to the Harry Potter series and said her royalties will be donated to fund COVID-19 relief.

Rowling said the new book is called The Ickabog. It will be published in serialized form, with one or more chapters posting each weekday on a dedicated website, today through July 10.

Rowling said she will donate her author royalties from the published books to “projects and organizations helping the groups most impacted by COVID-19.” She promised more details about benficiaries soon. In addition, she said children would be invited to submit illustrations for the work.

The idea for The Ickabog came to Rowling, she recalled, while she was finishing the Potter series. She wound up shelving it during a five-year break from publishing. She didn’t reveal plot details in her initial tease, but said it is “suitable” to be read aloud by 7-to-9-year-olds and “lends itself” to serialized storytelling.

The Ickabog is a story about truth and the abuse of power,” Rowling wrote. “To forestall one obvious question: the idea came to me well over a decade ago, so it isn’t intended to be read as a response to anything that’s happening in the world right now. The themes are timeless and could apply to any era or any country.”

Until recently, she added, “the only people who’d heard the story of The Ickabog were my two younger children.”

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Trump Says No Longer Taking Hydroxychloroquine

President Donald Trump said he is no longer taking anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as a possible Covid-19 treatment.

Trump repeatedly touted hydroxychloroquine as effective in the treatment of the deadly disease.

In an interview broadcast on Sunday, the President said he completed taking a two-week course of the medicine.

Defending his decision to take the drug, Trump told Sinclair Broadcasting: “Well, I’ve heard tremendous reports about it. Many people think it saved their lives. Doctors come out with reports. You had a study in France, you had a study in Italy that were incredible studies,”

“I believe in it enough that I took a program because I had two people in the White House that tested positive,” he added.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has suspended trials of hydroxychloroquine as a possible treatment for coronavirus amid safety concerns.

It comes a week after a study in The Lancet underrated the benefits of hydroxychloroquine in treating coronavirus patients.

According to the report in the medical journal, it might even prove dangerous than as a cure for the disease.

The United States and some other countries are using Hydroxychloroquine as a life-saving measure against the coronavirus, but there is no conclusive scientific evidence that the tablets can cure the infection from the novel pathogen.

U.S. hospitals are stockpiling Hydroxychloroquine after Trump called the drug a “game changer” in the treatment of the coronavirus.

India, which is one of the major manufacturers of the medicine, exported it to the United States on Trump’s request. He was so badly in need of the medicine that he even threatened of repercussions on New Delhi if it doesn’t respond favorably.

Hydroxychloroquine is used to prevent and treat acute attacks of malaria. It is a chemotherapeutic agent that acts against erythrocytic forms of malarial parasites.

It is also used to treat discoid or systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis in patients whose symptoms have not improved with other treatments.

This medication is sometimes prescribed for other uses.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in March warned against the experimental usage of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19.

But in a U-turn on Tuesday, the government agency said it found the drug very effective and having less side effects for prophylaxis consumption for COVID-19.

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